It’s Groundhog Day with a rash — we’ve seen this before, we know how it ends, and yet here we are again, scratching our heads.
I have been blogging about this and calling for action for years. New Zealand’s immunisation coverage rates are dire. We cannot expect a change by repeating the same formula.
A confirmed case of measles has been reported in Auckland. The individual works on the ferries and has been in multiple public locations. If this sounds familiar, it should — we’ve played this game before. And just like last time, we’re underprepared.
Measles isn’t back because it’s clever. It’s back because we let it in.
📜 A Short (and Very Repetitive) History
If you’ve got a sense of déjà vu, you’re not alone. A confirmed case of measles has surfaced in Auckland — the person works on the ferries, has been out and about, and, like clockwork, the virus is once again ahead of us. It’s a familiar script: one case today, a cluster tomorrow, and an outbreak we could have seen1 coming a mile away.
Let’s not kid ourselves: this isn’t a surprise — it’s the direct result of years of inaction, missed opportunities, and magical thinking. We’ve been warned. We’ve lived it. And now, we’re playing a dangerous game of Groundhog Day with a virus that doesn’t forget and doesn’t forgive.
In 2018–2019, we had a significant measles epidemic, with over 2,000 confirmed cases, disproportionately affecting babies, Pacific communities, and those with the least access to care. We saw serious complications, international exportation of cases, and an overloaded health system.
That should have been our wake-up call. And to be fair, some good intentions followed. A catch-up campaign for young adults was announced, funding was allocated, and health leaders raised the alarm. A Taskforce Immunisation report was welcomed by Te Whatu Ora in April 2023.
But then came the execution gap: poor data systems, low public awareness, workforce strain, the pandemic, and — frankly — political inertia. A patchy, underpowered rollout followed. Coverage barely budged. And now, in 2025, we’re staring down the barrel once more. In 2023, the coverage for children aged 18 months was 67.6% and 81.1% by age 2 years.
Fast-forward to 2025: In 2024, coverage for children aged 18 months was 62.8% and 76.4% by age 2 years. I am no math wiz, but this has gone WAY down, not up. Less than HALF of Maori children have received their MMR vaccine (47.4% aged 18 months).
- The immunity gaps are growing every month.
- Coverage needs to be around 95% to prevent community transmission of this virus
- And the virus is back.
📉 The Numbers Don’t Lie — They Scream
- Only around 76% of 2-year-olds are fully immunised — well below the 95% needed for herd immunity.
- Some regions and communities are far worse off — with Māori and Pacific children consistently having lower coverage, often by 20% or more.
- Thousands of teens and young adults — especially those born in the 1990s and early 2000s — missed their MMR shots and are still unprotected.
- The post-COVID slump in routine childhood immunisation continues on a downward trajectory, with no recovery in sight.
These are neon warning signs. This isn’t a gap. It’s a chasm. And measles is already stepping into it.
🏛️ What’s the Government Doing?
The short version: not enough – obviously.
Yes, there’s a National Immunisation Programme. Yes, the Immunisation Taskforce made some smart recommendations. But real, large-scale public health action? It’s been slow, fragmented, and reactive.
Where’s the bold, visible catch-up campaign?
Where’s the national communications push to reach communities with low coverage?
Where’s the data transparency, the incentives, the workforce investment?
We’re treating immunisation as a box-ticking exercise when it needs to be treated as a critical public health emergency. The virus doesn’t wait for political timelines, budget cycles, or bureaucratic reform.
Despite recommendations from the Immunisation Taskforce, we still lack:
- A visible nationwide MMR catch-up campaign
- A strong public awareness drive
- Real-time, accessible immunisation data
- Adequate investment in frontline delivery
There’s been more paperwork than progress.
The Strategy Lacks Visibility
As of May 2025, New Zealand does not have a visible, nationwide measles catch-up campaign underway. While the government has acknowledged the risk of a measles outbreak and has taken some steps, such as partnering with Plunket to increase the number of vaccinators, there is no comprehensive, high-profile national campaign targeting the large number of under-immunised individuals. If there were, it would be evident in a search of the web.
The previous catch-up campaign, launched in 2020, faced significant challenges. It aimed to vaccinate approximately 300,000 people but managed to reach only about 24,000. The campaign was hampered by the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to resource diversion and logistical issues. Additionally, over 300,000 MMR vaccine doses expired unused, resulting in substantial financial waste. Auditor-General NZ
Experts have been calling for urgent action to address the growing immunity gap. Recommendations include launching a bold, targeted national MMR catch-up campaign, prioritising Māori and Pacific-led outreach, modernising immunisation IT systems, supporting the health workforce, and raising political visibility of the issue.
Despite these calls, there has been limited progress. The current approach lacks the scale and urgency required to prevent a potential outbreak. Without a comprehensive national strategy, one that includes improving vaccine confidence, New Zealand remains vulnerable to a resurgence of measles. Seems like all Hui and no Dui to me.
🚨 How to Avoid the Next Outbreak (and the One After That)
We already have the tools to stop measles in its tracks. This isn’t a medical mystery — it’s a matter of delivery, trust, and action.
Here’s what New Zealand must do, urgently:
- Launch a bold, targeted national MMR catch-up campaign
Use schools, workplaces, churches, sports clubs — go where people are. Make it accessible, and unmissable. - Supercharge outreach in high-risk communities
Work with Māori and Pacific health providers. Fund them properly. Trust them to lead. - Fix the immunisation data system
We cannot manage what we cannot measure. Our records are patchy, incomplete, and unfit for purpose. - Invest in the health workforce and community delivery
Nurses, outreach teams, pharmacists — these are the people who get the job done. Fund them like they matter, because they do. - Own the crisis
This needs high-level political visibility — not a press release, but a commitment. Measles elimination is not a luxury. It’s a basic public health goal. - Address misinformation at its source using the readily available evidence and invest in growing trust.
💬 Final Word: Hope is Not a Strategy
New Zealand’s measles strategy, so far, has been: hope, ignore, repeat. And it’s failing us.
Measles is a test of public health credibility. And right now, we are failing.
We don’t need more reports. We need fewer susceptible kids. We need action — sustained, system-wide, and community-led. Anything less, and we’ll be back here again soon, only worse off. We have been successful before in this space.
Baker M, Turner N, David M, Kvalsvig A, Mansoor O, Wilson N. Urgent action needed to prevent a measles epidemic in Aotearoa New Zealand. Public Health Expert Brief. 2024 Feb 22.
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